Exploring current themes and what lies ahead for the primary and distressed markets.
In-person only event at the Biltmore, Mayfair.

November 2, 2023
3:30 PM-8:00 PM

You’re Invited! If you haven’t registered yet, we cordially invite you to join us.

Agenda at a Glance

• Registration: 3:30 – 4:00 p.m.
• Welcome by Global Head of Editorial, Mario Oliviero: 4:00 – 4:05 p.m.
• Performing Credit Panel: Debut Issuers Return as Sponsors and Investors Embrace New Normal, moderated by Bart Capeci, including audience Q&A: 4:05 – 4:55 p.m.
• Spotlight on ESG by Luke Wood: 4:55 – 5:05 p.m.
• Distressed Panel: Lenders Take Charge as Sponsors Run Out of Options in High Interest Rate Market, moderated by Magnus Scherman, including audience Q&A: 5:05 – 5:55 p.m.
• Cocktails, Canapes and Networking: 5:55 – 7:45 p.m.

Bart Capeci will moderate the performing panel ‘Debut Issuers Return as Sponsors and Investors Embrace New Normal’ featuring guests Camille Mcleod-Salmon from Fidelity International, Jamie Cane, CFA from Muzinich & Co, Natalie Day Netter from J.P. Morgan and Pieter Staelens from CVC Capital Partners.

Magnus Scherman will moderate the second panel ‘Lenders Take Charge as Sponsors Run Out of Options in High Interest Rate Market’ which will be moderated by Magnus Scherman. This panel includes experts Christian Herrmann from Polus Capital Management, Gani Diwan from Triton Partners, Sam Whittaker from Lazard and Toby Smyth from Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP.

In-person only attendance for credit professionals in London.
Register today for great content and networking over cocktails and canapes.

We send a weekly roundup of Reorg content ranging from breaking news to in-depth financial and legal analysis as well as the latest podcasts that you can listen to and webinars that you can register to attend. Sign up to Reorg on the Record here.

To keep up on the latest coverage with Reorg, follow Reorg on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Chinese regulators take further steps to cut down payments for home buyers and encourage banks to lower interest rates on existing mortgages, according to joint statements issued by the People’s Bank of China and National Administration of Financial Regulation on Thursday, Aug. 31. The minimum down payment will be uniformly reduced to no less than 20% for first home purchases and no less than 30% for second home purchases. The lower limit of mortgage interest rate for second home purchase had been adjusted to the level of related LPR+20 bps while the lower limit of mortgage interest rate for first home purchases remained at the level of related LPR-20 bps.

India’s GDP surged by 7.8% in April-June, surpassing predictions of 7.7% and up from 6.1% in the previous quarter and marked the highest in four quarters, driven by strong services sector and government capital spending. However experts suggest faster expansion in the first half of the financial year might give way to slower growth in the latter half, Nikkei Asia reported.

Shanghai Composite Index went up 0.34% to 3,130 as of 2:04 p.m. Beijing Time. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index went up 0.28% to close at 32,711, while Australia’s S&P/ASX200 went down 0.36% to close at 7,279. Hong Kong market is closed today due to No. 9 Typhoon.

If you would like to be panelist on any upcoming webinars, please contact marketing@reorg.com, and if you would like to be notified for the upcoming webinars, sign up for Reorg on the Record.

To keep up on the latest coverage with Reorg, follow Reorg on LinkedIn and Twitter.

During the first half of 2023, Reorg saw 23 debtors close restructurings, considerably more than the 14 that closed deals in H2’22 and 15 in H1’22.

Restructuring activity has increased in 2023, but still falls short of 2020 levels, which saw 61 restructurings close across the year.

Only 35% of restructurings closed consensually, out of court, in H1’23. This compares with 43% and 60% in H1’22 and H2’22 respectively. There appears to be a trend of debtors being more likely to pursue in-court restructurings, with a correlating increase in challenge – 22% of deals attracted a challenge in H1’23, compared to 17% during the whole of 2022.

There are 39 restructurings currently live, 14 of which are in a court process, notably seven are in U.K. court processes (CVAs, Scheme or Part 26A Plans). As of January, this number was 45, suggesting that deals are closing.

Included in the definition of restructuring are both consensual and non-consensual transactions, which featured at least one of the following: (i) an exchange of existing debt for new debt with different terms; (ii) the provision of new money through a new instrument; (iii) the equitization of existing debt instruments; and (iv) the amendment and extension of the maturity date of existing debt instruments.

Read the full article here.

If you would like to be panelist on any upcoming webinars, please contact marketing@reorg.com, and if you would like to be notified for the upcoming webinars, sign up for Reorg on the Record.

To keep up on the latest coverage with Reorg, follow Reorg on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Register Now here.

Join Reorg on Friday, July 28, as we discuss the background to Thames Water’s recent troubles and discuss what may lie ahead for the company, its shareholders and creditors. 

Panelists:

• Celine Buttanshaw, Legal Director
• Wayne Jambawo, Credit Analyst
• Connor Lovell, Senior Legal Reporter

Our expert team will provide:

• A brief summary of the U.K.’s water regulation framework and the relevant special administration regime;
• An overview of the events and financial performance leading up to the government’s announcement that contingency planning had begun;
• Market views on the group going forward.

You can find recent coverage on Thames Water here.

Please submit any questions in advance here.

Register Now here.

If you would like to be panelist on any upcoming webinars, please contact marketing@reorg.com, and if you would like to be notified for the upcoming webinars, sign up for Reorg on the Record.

To keep up on the latest coverage with Reorg, follow Reorg on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Traditional risk prediction models only scratch the surface when it comes to assessing risks. However, with Reorg’s Restructuring Risk Index (RRRI™), Reorg has transformed this landscape with a ground-breaking AI-driven solution. The RRRI generates a predictive likelihood of any U.S. publicly traded company entering a restructuring process and filing for bankruptcy.

What sets RRRI apart:

• Extensive Data Coverage: By granting you access to extensive data coverage on over 2,000 public companies, including a comprehensive library of past and ongoing updates to RRRI values, you gain a deeper understanding of distress signals, historical patterns and recurring risk factors to make informed investment decisions and identify new opportunities.
• Discover Alpha in the Unseen: Unlike quant-based risk models, the RRRI harnesses the untapped potential of unstructured data. Through advanced analysis of company disclosures like SEC filings, press releases, and transcripts, RRRI uncovers nuanced linguistic signals and taps into the richness of textual data. Gain a competitive edge by accessing previously overlooked alpha through our unique NLP-based approach.
• Unmatched Expertise and Historical Insights: Backed by our unparalleled expertise in the field and enriched by historical insights derived from Reorg’s unique database of in- and out-of-court restructuring events, we combine qualitative industry knowledge with cutting-edge technology.

With the RRRI, you gain the ability to navigate the intricate landscape of the credit market and capitalize on opportunities. Find out how Reorg’s Restructuring Risk Index can boost your prospecting and business development efforts here.
Request a trial.

Join Reorg’s Magnus Scherman who’ll be moderating an expert panel to discuss credit considerations for Ukraine, one year after the beginning of the war.

Expert guests:

• Tim Ash, Senior EM Sovereign Strategist, BlueBay Asset Management
• Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, Head of Macroeconomic Research at ICU
• Tetyana Nesterchuk, Barrister at Fountain Court

The webinar included a discussion of the war’s impact on Ukraine’s economy and public finance so far, an overview of (the few) Ukrainian restructurings we saw in 2022, the SDR-backed debt proposal, the draft bill to confiscate Russian Central Bank assets in the U.K. and a look ahead at how Ukraine could emerge.

Watch the replay.

If you would like to be panelist on any upcoming webinars, please contact marketing@reorg.com, and if you would like to be notified for the upcoming webinars, sign up for Reorg on the Record.

The restructuring of U.K. retailer Matalan proposed by its first lien lenders will be implemented consensually, sources told Reorg. The first lien group will utilize the distressed disposal provisions (clause 14.2) contained in the intercreditor agreement, or ICA, to implement the transaction, which is due to close Jan. 26.

These clauses allow the security agent to release liabilities, guarantees and security provided the relevant criteria for a distressed disposal are met and any value protection safeguards are satisfied. Consequently, they are important contractual tools in helping to facilitate successful restructurings.

The group’s senior bondholders are resorting to their “fall back” option of taking over the group after second lien holders withdrew from the sales process and other bids fell short of expectations, as reported.

Reorg explains what the contractual tool entails and has run a cash flow and waterfall analysis with management’s business plan to test the sustainability of the post-restructuring capital structure.

To access Reorg’s legal and waterfall analyses on Matalan, request a trial.

Hear Reorg’s Europe team discussing Matalan’s recapitalization agreement in a recent podcast episode.

The wave of hard financial restructurings expected in Europe in 2022 to rival the 2008/9 crisis appears to have been mistimed. As a result of cheap debt and fiscal support available since the Covid-19 pandemic, stressed debtors have been able to avoid insolvency or restructuring.

In our 2022 European Restructuring Wrap, legal experts analyze the restructurings from 2022 and look ahead to 2023. Here’s a few key takeaways from 2022:

• Restructuring activity, defined by the occurrence of liability management exercises (LMEs), in 2022 has briefly returned to pre-pandemic levels, following a surge in 2020;

• During 2022, a higher proportion of restructuring transactions (63%) were implemented consensually compared with the previous two years;
• Restructuring transactions that introduced new money at a secured, senior secured or super senior secured level in 2022 were more likely (66%) than non new money deals to have been implemented using a restructuring tool, (non consensually);
• There has been a large uptick in restructuring advisor appointments over the last three months. Reorg is currently monitoring 45 debtors who have appointed advisors but not yet completed a restructuring. Consumer discretionary, energy and industrial sectors feature most prevalently in this list and further details on each name can be found on our EMEA Special Situations Tracker.

Examining our observations, and wary of the previously mistimed predictions of increased restructuring activity, we have the following outlook for 2023:

• Following a busy Q4’22, we expect to see a continued increase in restructuring activity in Europe throughout 2023.
• We also expect to see a high percentage of consensual LME exercises over the coming months. We could see the occurrence of LME exercises match the higher levels seen in 2020 and 2021 – marking an increase from 2022;
• English law tools (being the scheme of arrangement and restructuring plan) will continue to feature heavily in non-consensual European restructurings, in spite of the recent proliferation of new domestic restructuring tool in other European countries;
• We expect to continue to see amend and extend, or A&E, activity in the short term, with a lot of borrowers facing maturity issues in the coming years. A&Es offer an opportunity for lenders to reprice and avoid hard restructurings which could cause credit investors to prematurely realize losses

Data compiled by Reorg in our EMEA Restructuring Database, available exclusively through Credit Cloud, paints a fascinating picture, hinting at what we might see in the financial restructuring arena in 2023.

Read the full article written by Reorg’s Shan Qureshi or catch up on other recent intelligence articles published by Reorg.

For full access to Reorg’s platform of news, analysis and data built for financial and legal professionals, request a trial.

Reorg’s EMEA Middle Market team has published a Mid Market wrap that highlights debt capital markets, direct lending, debt and leverage data and more through 2022.

This year, disruptions in the debt capital market helped shine a brighter light on the expanding potential for private debt. Despite economic headwinds and uncertainty for M&A, direct lenders have sustained dealmaking, adapting and seizing opportunities such as large cap deals, public-to-private transactions, refinancings and add-ons.

“Direct lenders can provide higher visibility and certainty of execution without any caveats. Sponsors are now prioritizing such certainty over other elements that in the past were considered more important.” Leticia Ruenes, managing director and head of Spain at Pemberton, said.

Dry powder available for the asset class has increased 4% year over year amounting to $198.5 billion as of Wednesday, Dec. 14, according to research from Preqin. In 2023, market participants said they expect a slow start and an increase of activity from the second quarter mainly driven by leveraged buyouts.

Key Trends in 2022

One trend from 2022 is the amount of club deals that have arisen to satisfy the increasing average deal size, which is more than $1 billion for reported deals in 2022, according to Preqin. Rather than individual funds being sole underwriters, some sponsors are preferring optionality and a diversification of lenders because of the difficult economic climate.

In the first half of the year, various large direct lenders took a higher amount of debt financing deals and benefited from large cap borrowers’ inability to use a shut leveraged loan market due to macro uncertainties including the war in Ukraine.

In the second half of the year, club deals have allowed direct lenders to remain active, even as capacity declined due to heavy deployment at the start of the year and funds showed caution in a more challenging macro environment.

“Club deals are becoming more and more the norm in Europe and we have experienced this trend in our last recent transactions.” Luis Mayans, partner and deputy head, private debt for Europe at CDPQ, said. “There is an acceptance among lenders that club deals are the way forward.”

He cautioned that in a less certain market “some lenders, which would have done €500 million to €600 million deals six months ago, are now taking tickets a third of that size.”

A club deal structure isn’t yet a practice that all European funds are prepared to embrace. “Europe is about 10 years behind the U.S. in terms of club deals,” Stuart Hawkins, managing director in private credit at Ardian, said.

Access our EMEA Mid Market Debt Origination tracker, a monthly tracker capturing debt and leverage data from Reorg’s coverage, by requesting a trial.

To keep up to date on the EMEA credit market, subscribe to our weekly podcast and check our events page regularly for upcoming EMEA webinars.

What lies ahead in 2023 in Asian restructuring and where are the opportunities for investors?

Asia’s high-yield market in 2022 was hit by multiple defaults in China’s real estate sector. “Three Red Lines”, frozen escrow accounts, follow-on LMEs, and opaque onshore restructuring processes, all contributed to substantial losses in Asian high-yield markets.

But the world’s second-largest economy is now emerging from a three-year Covid lockdown, with the government hinting at business-friendly policies, and greater support for the property market. Will it stem fund outflows from the region? Will high-yield bond markets ever return to their previous size? What are the restructuring trends, and where are the next set of credit opportunities in Asia?

Join Reorg – along with a panel of expert guests from Dechert, Latham & Watkins and Rothschild & Co – for a discussion of what we can expect this coming year in the Asian credit markets. 

Panelists:

• Stephen Aldred, Reorg, (moderator) 
• Benjamin Fang, Rothschild & Co
• Howard Lam, Latham & Watkins
• Yang Zhao, Dechert

Webinar details:

• When:  Wednesday, Jan. 11, 4 p.m. HKT / 8 a.m. GMT
• Registration: To register for the webinar, click HERE.